Cardinals vs Pirates Preview, Odds, Trends, & Free Pick [8/20/17]

St Louis (63-60) at Pittsburgh (59-64)
When: Sunday, August 20th 2017
Where: Bowman Field, Williamsport, PA
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: Pittsburgh -110/9

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The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates will conclude their four-game weekend set with a much different setting than beautiful PNC Park on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. The teams will drive about three hours away to historic Williamsport, Pennsylvania to play Sunday’s contest at Bowman Field (capacity 2,400), home of the Williamsport Crosscutters of the Single-A New York-Penn League. It’s dubbed the “MLB Little League Classic” and is a regular-season big-league contest that counts in the standings. The network is making it the featured event in a day-long run of coverage centered on the Little League World Series, which is being held on other fields in Williamsport. Starling Marte had three hits, including a homer, as the Pirates snapped a six-game slide with Saturday’s 6-4 victory. Marte is 11-for-22 with three RBIs over the last five games. Pittsburgh had allowed 46 runs during its losing streak including 11 in each of the first two games of this series. The Cardinals fell 2.5 games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs with Saturday’s loss. St. Louis rookie Paul DeJong belted his 20th homer in his 70th major-league game on Saturday and rides a nine-game hitting streak (17-for-36) into Sunday. Cardinals OF Randal Grichuk and RHP Lance Lynn, along with Pittsburgh INF Max Moroff, all played in the Little League World Series at Williamsport.

Pitchers: Cardinals – Mike Leake (7-11, 3.88 ERA) | Pirates – Ivan Nova (10-10, 3.77)

Mike Leake, who is 1-0 with a 3.12 ERA in three games against Pittsburgh this season, is winless in his last four outings. He’s allowed 19 runs (18 earned) over 20.1 innings after getting pounded for eight at Boston on Tuesday. Leake has pitched more than five innings just twice in his last eight starts after accomplishing the feat in 15 of his first 16 outings of 2017. David Freese is 16-for-36 with a homer versus Leake, who is 10-5 with a 3.33 ERA in 31 career starts against Pittsburgh.

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Ivan Nova looks to put together back-to-back solid outings after allowing just two runs over six innings in a hard-luck loss at Milwaukee on Tuesday. He has now lost four times over a five-game winless streak. Nova kept the ball in the yard on Tuesday after allowing 11 homers over his previous seven outings. Kolten Wong belted a homer against Nova, who took the loss despite limiting St. Louis to two runs over eight innings on April 17th.

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Both pitchers are a little shaky right now, so let’s look to the hotter offense. It’s definitely St. Louis, with 26 runs in the first three games of this series. I can see another similar score like Saturday’s, but this time the Cardinals will come out on top.

Pick: Cardinals -110

  • Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
  • Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Cardinals are 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Cardinals are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Cardinals are 10-4 in their last 14 overall.
  • Cardinals are 10-4 in their last 14 games on grass.
  • Cardinals are 14-6 in their last 20 games following a loss.
  • Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 during game 4 of a series.
  • Cardinals are 12-26 in their last 38 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Cardinals are 5-1 in Leake’s last 6 Sunday starts.
  • Cardinals are 3-7 in Leake’s last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 7-19 in Leake’s last 26 starts vs. National League Central.
  • Cardinals are 4-11 in Leake’s last 15 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 2-6 in Leake’s last 8 starts.
  • Cardinals are 2-6 in Leake’s last 8 starts on grass.
  • Cardinals are 2-7 in Leake’s last 9 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 1-5 in Leake’s last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Cardinals are 0-4 in Leake’s last 4 road starts.
  • Cardinals are 0-4 in Leake’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Pirates are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 4 of a series.
  • Pirates are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Pirates are 11-5 in their last 16 home games.
  • Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
  • Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
  • Pirates are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Pirates are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Pirates are 1-6 in their last 7 overall.
  • Pirates are 5-0 in Nova’s last 5 home starts.
  • Pirates are 3-1 in Nova’s last 5 starts during game 4 of a series.
  • Pirates are 6-2 in Nova’s last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Pirates are 6-2 in Nova’s last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Pirates are 2-5 in Nova’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Pirates are 1-4 in Nova’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Pirates are 1-4 in Nova’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Pirates are 1-4 in Nova’s last 5 starts.
  • Pirates are 1-4 in Nova’s last 5 starts on grass.
  • Over is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 vs. National League Central.
  • Over is 11-0 in Cardinals last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 12-1 in Cardinals last 13 overall.
  • Over is 12-1 in Cardinals last 13 on grass.
  • Over is 8-1 in Cardinals last 9 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 road games.
  • Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Under is 8-3 in Cardinals last 11 during game 4 of a series.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in Cardinals last 8 games following a loss.
  • Over is 37-15-5 in Cardinals last 57 Sunday games.
  • Over is 5-0 in Leake’s last 5 Sunday starts.
  • Over is 5-0-2 in Leake’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Over is 4-0 in Leake’s last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 6-1 in Leake’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 4-1-1 in Leake’s last 6 starts on grass.
  • Over is 4-1-1 in Leake’s last 6 starts overall.
  • Over is 4-1 in Leake’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in Leake’s last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 11-3 in Leake’s last 14 road starts.
  • Under is 11-4 in Leake’s last 15 starts vs. National League Central.
  • Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 overall.
  • Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 on grass.
  • Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 home games.
  • Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 vs. National League Central.
  • Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 15-5 in Pirates last 20 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 9-3-1 in Pirates last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 26-9-2 in Pirates last 37 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Under is 4-0 in Nova’s last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 7-0 in Nova’s last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
  • Under is 7-1 in Nova’s last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-1 in Nova’s last 6 home starts.
  • Under is 4-1 in Nova’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 9-3 in Nova’s last 12 starts on grass.
  • Under is 9-3 in Nova’s last 12 starts overall.
  • Under is 5-2 in Nova’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Under is 4-1 in Leake’s last 5 starts vs. Pirates.
  • Cardinals are 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.

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