Cardinals vs Mets Preview, Odds, Trends, & Free Pick [7/19/17]

St Louis (46-47) at NY Mets (41-50)
When: Wednesday, July 19th 2017
Where: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Time: 7:10 ET | TV: ESPN
Opening Odds: New York -160/7.5

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The St. Louis Cardinals are climbing up the standings and look to stay hot when they take on the New York Mets in the third of a four-game series on Wednesday night. St. Louis has already won the first two and have beaten the Mets four straight times, while winning 13 of their past 20 games to get within 4.5 games of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. Matt Carpenter clubbed an RBI double as part of a four-hit performance in Tuesday’s 5-0 victory, extending his on base streak to 21 consecutive games. He has scored six runs during his eight-game hitting streak and is 9-for-18 while scoring five times versus the Mets this season. Cardinals 2B-SS Paul DeJong has also had success against the Mets this season, going 11-for-21 with nine extra-base hits (five doubles, four homers) and six RBIs. While St. Louis is attempting to climb back to .500 for the first time since June 2, New York has dropped three in a row and eight of 11 to fall into fourth place in the National League East. Part of the Mets problem has been hitting with runners in scoring position. They are a paltry 0-for-25 over the last three games in that category. LF Michael Conforto had two of his team’s three hits on Tuesday and has four in his last three games against St. Louis this season. Jacob deGrom will get the nod for New York and carries a 6-0 mark with a 1.53 ERA in his past six starts, although he allowed a career-high four homers at St. Louis on July 7th.

Pitchers: Cardinals – Mike Leake (6-7, 3.14 ERA) | Mets – Jacob deGrom (10-3, 3.48)

Mike Leake will look to turn things around and keep the Cardinals roll going. He is 1-5 in his last nine starts after receiving a no-decision on Friday following a two-run performance over five innings at Pittsburgh. Leake walked five batters in that game on the heels of surrendering a season-high eight runs in his previous outing. Leake has struggled against the Mets’ Lucas Duda, who is 6-for-8 with two homers and five RBIs against him.

deGrom’s latest strong stretch has resulted in 47 strikeouts against just nine walks in 47 innings. He overcame a 26-pitch first inning and ended up going eight strong while striking out 11 of a 14-2 rout of Colorado on Friday. DeGrom was able to win his last outing versus St. Louis, improving to 2-2 in his career despite a 5.63 ERA while allowing them to bat .465 against him.

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The Mets are starting to skid badly and the Cardinals are playing extremely well. I’m not afraid to take them against deGrom either. They have already proven they can hit him. Look for Leake to get back on track against the Mets.

Pick: Cardinals +130

W/L TRENDS

St. Louis
  • Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 12-3 in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Cardinals are 20-6 in their last 26 vs. National League East.
  • Cardinals are 6-2 in their last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 road games.
  • Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 overall.
  • Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 games on grass.
  • Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Cardinals are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win.
  • Cardinals are 7-1 in Leake’s last 8 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 6-1 in Leake’s last 7 starts vs. National League East.
  • Cardinals are 9-2 in Leake’s last 11 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 2-5 in Leake’s last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 2-5 in Leake’s last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Cardinals are 2-5 in Leake’s last 7 Wednesday starts.
NY Mets
  • Mets are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a loss.
  • Mets are 2-5 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Mets are 6-16 in their last 22 during game 3 of a series.
  • Mets are 3-8 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Mets are 3-8 in their last 11 overall.
  • Mets are 3-8 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Mets are 3-8 in their last 11 games on grass.
  • Mets are 2-6 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Mets are 2-7 in their last 9 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
  • Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
  • Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Mets are 4-0 in deGrom’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Mets are 4-0 in deGrom’s last 4 home starts.
  • Mets are 6-0 in deGrom’s last 6 starts.
  • Mets are 6-0 in deGrom’s last 6 starts on grass.
  • Mets are 6-1 in deGrom’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Mets are 4-1 in deGrom’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Mets are 16-5 in deGrom’s last 21 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Mets are 21-7 in deGrom’s last 28 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Mets are 22-8 in deGrom’s last 30 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Mets are 2-5 in deGrom’s last 7 Wednesday starts.

OU TRENDS

St. Louis
  • Under is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 overall.
  • Under is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Under is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 road games.
  • Under is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 on grass.
  • Under is 7-0-1 in Cardinals last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games following a win.
  • Under is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 vs. National League East.
  • Under is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 7-1-2 in Cardinals last 10 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 Wednesday games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Over is 19-7-1 in Cardinals last 27 during game 3 of a series.
  • Under is 5-0 in Leake’s last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 10-1 in Leake’s last 11 road starts.
  • Under is 6-1 in Leake’s last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-1 in Leake’s last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in Leake’s last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 3-1-1 in Leake’s last 5 starts vs. National League East.
  • Under is 16-6-1 in Leake’s last 23 starts on grass.
  • Under is 16-6-1 in Leake’s last 23 starts overall.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in Leake’s last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-2 in Leake’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 10-4 in Leake’s last 14 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
NY Mets
  • Under is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 vs. National League Central.
  • Under is 6-1 in Mets last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in Mets last 5 overall.
  • Under is 3-1-1 in Mets last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in Mets last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in Mets last 5 on grass.
  • Over is 9-3 in Mets last 12 Wednesday games.
  • Over is 15-5-2 in Mets last 22 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Over is 6-2-1 in Mets last 9 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Over is 20-7-3 in Mets last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 16-6-3 in Mets last 25 during game 3 of a series.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in Mets last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 32-15-6 in Mets last 53 home games.
  • Over is 32-15-6 in Mets last 53 games following a loss.
  • Over is 37-18-9 in Mets last 64 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Over is 4-0 in deGrom’s last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
  • Under is 5-0-1 in deGrom’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 6-1 in deGrom’s last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
  • Over is 7-2-1 in deGrom’s last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in deGrom’s last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in deGrom’s last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Under is 6-2-1 in deGrom’s last 9 home starts.

HEAD TO HEAD

  • Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.
  • Cardinals are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York.
  • Cardinals are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New York.

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