Brewers vs Phillies Preview, Odds, Trends, & Free Pick [7/22/17]

Milwaukee (52-47) at Philadelphia (33-61)
When: Saturday, July 22nd 2017
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Time: 7:05 ET | TV: FSN Wisconsin, NBC 10
Opening Odds: Philadelphia -111/9

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The Milwaukee Brewers will try and halt a six-game losing streak when they take on the worst team in Baseball on Saturday night in Philadelphia against the Phillies. The Brewers’ season-high losing skid has been book-ended with setbacks to the Phillies, but they still hold a one-game lead over the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central thanks to the Cardinals victory in Chicago on Friday. Milwaukee has scored only 12 runs during the slide and part of the problem is the abscence of left fielder Ryan Braun due to various injuries this season. Braun (.258, 11 home runs, 27 RBIs) missed his third straight start Friday and told reporters that he received a cortisone shot in his wrist prior to the All-Star break, adding to calf and elbow injuries that has forced him to miss 53 games this season. Braun, who could play Saturday, is batting .372 with 21 home runs and 57 RBIs in 61 career games versus the Phillies. Philadelphia has won three straight games – its second longest streak of the season. Philadelphia rookie RF Nick Williams went 1-for-4 in the Phillies 6-1 win on Friday, snapping his four-game streak of recording multiple hits and RBIs. Phillies OF Howie Kendrick (hamstring), sidelined since June 28th, was activated from the disabled list Friday and had a pinch-hit single in the eighth inning. Phillies right-hander Jeremy Hellickson, who is coming off a victory over the Brewers, could be making one of his last starts in a Philadelphia uniform prior to the July 31st trade deadline. He will oppose Brent Suter, who has been sharp since taking the spot of the injured Chase Anderson in the rotation.

Pitchers: Brewers – Brent Suter (1-1, 3.09 ERA) | Phillies – Jeremy Hellickson (6-5, 4.44)

Suter allowed two runs, seven hits, and two walks, while striking out two in just 4.2 innings last Monday in a 4-2 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates, but ended up with a no-decision. Suter is 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA in three starts since replacing Anderson, striking out 15 and allowing 16 hits in 17 innings. Suter has never faced Philadelphia or any of its players.

Hellickson is on a bit of a roll, increasing his trade value after allowing two runs, four hits and one walk while striking out six in five innings of a 5-2 victory at Milwaukee on Sunday. He is 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA in five career starts versus the Brewers. Hellickson is 1-0 with a 3.26 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 25 hits and striking out 25 in 30.1 innings for the last place Phillies. Hellickson has shut down both Braun and Eric Thames (combined 4-for-21), but struggles with Jonathan Villar (4-for-6, home run).

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Hellickson will have a lot of eyes on him tonight as he senses a trade to a contender. Milwaukee is in desperate need of a win and should get a solid outing from Suter. I expect a low-scoring game that will go Milwaukee’s way tonight.

Pick: Brewers -115

W/L TRENDS

Milwaukee
  • Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Brewers are 5-12 in their last 17 during game 2 of a series.
  • Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
  • Brewers are 4-10 in their last 14 Saturday games.
  • Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 road games.
  • Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a loss.
  • Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 overall.
  • Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 games on grass.
  • Brewers are 1-4 in Suter’s last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Brewers are 1-4 in Suter’s last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Brewers are 1-5 in Suter’s last 6 starts.
  • Brewers are 1-5 in Suter’s last 6 starts on grass.
  • Brewers are 0-5 in Suter’s last 5 road starts.
Philadelphia
  • Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Phillies are 17-35 in their last 52 during game 2 of a series.
  • Phillies are 26-58 in their last 84 vs. National League Central.
  • Phillies are 33-74 in their last 107 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Phillies are 22-52 in their last 74 overall.
  • Phillies are 22-52 in their last 74 games on grass.
  • Phillies are 5-12 in their last 17 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Phillies are 4-10 in their last 14 home games.
  • Phillies are 5-13 in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Phillies are 10-28 in their last 38 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Phillies are 6-20 in their last 26 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Phillies are 0-6 in their last 6 Saturday games.
  • Phillies are 5-1 in Hellickson’s last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Phillies are 5-2 in Hellickson’s last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Phillies are 5-2 in Hellickson’s last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
  • Phillies are 5-2 in Hellickson’s last 7 Saturday starts.
  • Phillies are 1-4 in Hellickson’s last 5 home starts.
  • Phillies are 1-6 in Hellickson’s last 7 starts.
  • Phillies are 1-6 in Hellickson’s last 7 starts on grass.

OU TRENDS

Milwaukee
  • Under is 7-0 in Brewers last 7 road games.
  • Under is 7-0 in Brewers last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Under is 7-0 in Brewers last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 during game 2 of a series.
  • Under is 5-1-2 in Brewers last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Under is 18-7-1 in Brewers last 26 overall.
  • Under is 18-7-1 in Brewers last 26 on grass.
  • Under is 18-7-1 in Brewers last 26 games following a loss.
  • Under is 18-7-1 in Brewers last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Under is 7-3-1 in Brewers last 11 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 7-3-1 in Brewers last 11 vs. National League East.
  • Under is 5-0 in Suter’s last 5 starts on grass.
  • Under is 4-0 in Suter’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 4-0 in Suter’s last 4 road starts.
  • Under is 5-0 in Suter’s last 5 starts overall.
  • Under is 4-0 in Suter’s last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-0 in Suter’s last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Philadelphia
  • Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 during game 2 of a series.
  • Under is 7-1-1 in Phillies last 9 vs. National League Central.
  • Under is 5-1-1 in Phillies last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-1-3 in Phillies last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 7-2-1 in Phillies last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Under is 6-2 in Phillies last 8 Saturday games.
  • Under is 15-5-4 in Phillies last 24 home games.
  • Over is 16-6-2 in Phillies last 24 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Under is 18-7-3 in Phillies last 28 overall.
  • Under is 18-7-3 in Phillies last 28 on grass.
  • Under is 10-4-2 in Phillies last 16 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-0 in Hellickson’s last 4 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Under is 3-0-2 in Hellickson’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 3-0-2 in Hellickson’s last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
  • Under is 6-1-2 in Hellickson’s last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-1-2 in Hellickson’s last 7 starts on grass.
  • Under is 4-1-2 in Hellickson’s last 7 starts overall.
  • Under is 6-2 in Hellickson’s last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
  • Under is 5-2 in Hellickson’s last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Under is 10-4-4 in Hellickson’s last 18 home starts.
  • Under is 7-3 in Hellickson’s last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

HEAD TO HEAD

  • Over is 16-4-1 in the last 21 meetings in Philadelphia.
  • Brewers are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia.

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