Betting the Money Linein the NFL: Risking A Little to Make a Lot
The Wunderdog (
www.freeunderdog.com
)
While seasoned gamblers understand the money-line,many sports bettors are not familiar with this betting optionand the huge potential benefits associated with utilizing it.This article will describe the money-line and how it can be usedto risk a little and win a lot in the NFL.
What is the Money-Line?
Playing the money-line is equivalent to picking a team (favoriteor underdog) to win the game straight-up. For this bet, thereis no spread. If the team you pick wins the game outright, youwin your bet. If the team loses, you lose the bet. There is nojuice or vig (although the odds you get have casino profit builtin).
I know what you're thinking - just pick the favorite each timeand laugh all the way to the bank! Well, it's not that simple.If this bet paid even money, you would simply pick the favoriteseach week, win more than 50% of your bets, and retire young. That'swhy, of course, this bet doesn't pay even money. If you selecta favorite to win straight up, you need to put down more thanyou can win. If you select an underdog, you need to put down lessmoney than you can win. Let's look at a couple of examples:
Example 1: Miami Dolphins -3 over Minnesota Vikings
For this game, the sports book has set the Money Line at -180for Miami and +150 for Minnesota. That means that if you wantto bet Miami to win straight up, you would need to lay $180 towin $100. If you want to take Minnesota to win straight-up, youwould lay $100 to win $150.
Example 2: Buffalo Bills +6.5 over Green Bay Packers
For the second game, the bookmaker has set the money at -300 forthe Pack and +230 for Buffalo. The larger numbers reflect thelarger spread. If you can pick a 6.5 point underdog to win straight-up,you would win $230 for a mere $100 bet.
CLICKHERE TO BET NFL MONEY LINES
Risking a Little to Win a Lot
What you may have noticed is that if you can successfully pickunderdogs to win straight-up, you can win a lot of money withoutrisking nearly as much. I like this fact about the money line.And, if you combine money-line picks into parlays, you can reallyhit the jackpot with a small investment. For example, if we parlayedMinnesota and Buffalo with the money-line in the above example,a $100 bet would yield $725 in winnings. Throw in a third team(say, the Giants at +4.5) and a $100 bet would win $2,169.
Obviously, it is harder to pick underdogs to win straight-up,right? Yes, but maybe not as hard as you initially think. Thespread only comes into play about 84% of the time in the NFL.In other words, the team that wins the game doesn't cover thespread only 16% of the time.
Also, since you win more than you bet when picking dogs with themoney line, you have to win a much smaller percentage of yourgames to break even. The particular percentage depends on thespread in the games you pick (the higher the spreads, the fewergames you need to win since the money line pays more for higherspread dogs).
For example, let's imagine over the course of the season you wereto pick 100 three-point underdogs to win straight-up at a moneyline of +150. In this scenario, you would only need to win 40%of those games to break even. On the 60 losses, you would of courselose 60 units (there is no juice on money line bets). On the 40winners you would win 60 units (1.5 x 40).
If you were to pick one hundred 6.5-point underdogs to win straight-upat a money line of +230, you would only need to win about 31%of your bets to break-even.
So, there is an opportunity to do well with the money-line ifyou can select enough dogs that win straight-up.
What it All Means
This season, consider using the money-line to your advantage.If you like an underdog and think they have a shot at winningthe game outright, you might be better off putting that $100 onmoney-line for your team. If they win straight-up, you'll rakein a lot more profits than if you had just bet them to cover thespread. If you aren't sure, split your bets and put $50 on thedog to win straight-up and $50 to cover the spread. If the teamcovers the spread but doesn't win the game, you break-even. Ifthey win the game, you win both bets!
The Wunderdog
www.freeunderdog.com
1-877-DOG-WINS
The Wunderdog has been handicapping NFL gamesfor over 15 years and specializes in picking underdogs (with theoccasional underrated favorite). He publishes a free weekly newsletter,available on his website, with an underdog pick each week of theNFL season.
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