How to Bet on Baseball Games ]]> include($base_url . “/includes/header.htm”); ?>
|GAMBLING ON BASEBALL
by Kevin of Ultimatecapper.com
Things to look for when handicapping baseball:
Don’t bet too early! – How would you like to bet on theMariners and find out an hour before game-time that Ichiro issitting? Betting baseball early can be lethal if the coach decidesto sit a star player and believe me, it happens!
Look at hitter vs. pitcher stats! – This info is priceless!You’ll find some unbelievable stats such as a whole team hitting.400 against the day’s starting pitcher. Don’t look at just thisyear, look at player stats for their career vs. a pitcher. Yahoo.comhas a great pitcher vs. hitter stat option. Very important stuff!
Look at a pitchers performance over his last couple of games!– Even the worst of pitchers catch a hot streak. Conversely, don’tbet on a guy if he’s gone 3 innings and given up a ton of hitsand earned runs over his last couple of starts as this could bean indication of a nagging injury or a “dead arm.” We’d also liketo note that you should check if there’s some consistency/inconsistencyin home/away games. Some guys flat out can’t get it done on theroad.
Check out how a pitcher has done vs. the opponent during hiscareer – Certain pitchers own certain teams…Conversely,certain pitchers fail miserably vs. certain teams. Go with it!A good example of this is Roy Oswalt who at time of print is somethinglike 14-0 vs. the Reds! Dude owns them!
Check weather reports! – Nothing is more dishearteningthan playing an under at Wrigley Field, turning the game on, andseeing the flags ripping off the pole with the wind blowing outto left field!
Don’t just check ERA, check RATIO too! – Ratiois figured out by dividing walks + hits and dividing it by inningspitched. Anything 1.00 or under your talking Randy Johnson, Maddux,Koufax type numbers…1.25 and below is damn good, 1.40’ish numbersare faily normal, and anything more than that your looking ata good potential go against. Pitchers that are near 2.00 are completegas-cans. You won’t find 2.00 very often because they have beendemoted to the minors.
Don’t just look at a pitcher/hitters statsand assume thats how they perform! – Baseball is a VERY streakygame. If your serious about handicapping and want to win yourgoing to need to look at individual performances. Here’s an example…Let’ssay Kenny Rogers has a 7.50 ERA…But after checking his gamelogs you see that he has pitched in 10 games and one of them hegave up 9 runs in 2 innings. This will severely skew (and screw)a players numbers giving you an inaccurate reading of his truetalent. This is a very common misconception made by people cappinggames. Don’t get burned!
Home/Away Stats – Some players feel comfortable/uncomfortablein certain surroundings. Take Jeff Cirillo for example. At onepoint a few years ago he was hitting .100 at home (Safeco Field)and .320 on the road. These are things that are good to know.Don’t get caught laying your hard earned loot on a guy like JimmyAnderson who is currently 1-8 at home with a 7.50 ERA. Conversely,don’t slap a gascan tag on him either because he’s been lethalon the road. Get the picture?
Over/Unders – There’s a reason books putlower limits on totals! Their easier to beat! Study, get privyto the info and take your shot at winning easier! Totals usuallyhave less vig as well!
Favorites vs. Dogs – Since MLB operateson a moneyline, you have to watch what you do. We’re not laying-110 on each side here folks. A -200 fav. may sound like a “can’tlose” but the fact is when they do, and it does happen, you haveto win two freaking games just to break even. By playing dogsyou can actually have a sub .500 winning percentage and stealbeat up a book! Try to stick to the dogs! This may be the bestadvice we can give!
Umpire Stats – Some handicappers swearby umpire stats but we find this to be a secondary stat. It istrue that some umps have larger/smaller strikes zones though.If you have access to the stats, its worth a look, but don’t baseyour whole wager on these stats.
Lastly, check your sportsbook and make sure yournot being dealt a 20 cent line. They simply don’t give you thevalue you deserve when betting underdogs.
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