In our continuing series on the basics of betting baseball, we turn our attention to MLB Pitching Acronyms. That is, commonly used metrics that handicappers and major league analysts utilize to evaluate pitchers. The purpose of this article is to explain in layman’s terms what some of the widely used acronyms such as ERA, WHIP and SV mean. For each of the different metrics defined below, we include the MLB Average, MLB Median, NL Average and AL Average to serve as a benchmark. With any luck, this will lend less experienced baseball cappers a frame of reference for what the acronym means, why it is important and whether or not the number being analyzed is a sign of strength or weakness.
ERA – Earned Run Average
This is the number of earned runs a pitcher allows multiplied by 9 and then divided by the number of innings pitched. The number of earned runs is multiplied by 9 since there are 9 innings in a standard Major League Baseball game. The formula is fairly easy to apply. For example, if Randy Johnson gives up 3 earned runs in 7 innings, his ERA for that game would be: [3 (earned runs) x 9]/ 7 (innings pitched) = 3.86.
A few things you should know about ERA. If a run scores as a result of an error, it does not count against a pitcher’s ERA. Hence the “E” in ERA stands for “earned”. Also, while it is often assumed to be the “holy grail” of baseball metrics to evaluate a pitcher, using ERA in and of itself does have drawbacks. First, hits allowed (which in turn lead to earned runs) are often out of the pitcher’s control. How many times, for example, have we seen a pitcher get saved by an outstanding diving play from the third baseman, while another pitcher get robbed by a broken bat bloop single or a less than stellar effort from his defense? The point being is these fluke bloop singles and other “out of the pitchers’ hands” scenarios can of course lead to “earned runs” and a higher ERA.
We should also note that American League Pitchers will generally have a higher ERA than National League Pitchers given the AL has a designated hitter. The designated hitter rule will almost always inflate the American League metrics for both pitching and hitting.
So as a frame of reference, here is the Average ERA in MLB, MedianERA in MLB, Average ERA in the NL and Average ERA in the NL. All of these figures are as of June 1, 2004.
MLB Average 4.37 ERA
MLB Median 4.40 ERA
NL Average 4.17 ERA
AL Average 4.61 ERA
So for evaluation purposes, an ERA below 4.37, would be considered relatively good compared to the league average as a whole. The lower it goes, the stronger the ERA becomes. The reverse, obviously, holds true as well. The higher the ERA, the weaker.
WHIP – Walks + Hits divided by Innings Pitched.
This metric evaluates a pitcher based on how many hits and walkshe allows per innings pitched. It’s pretty easy to calculatea pitcher’s WHIP. Assuming our friend Randy Johnson gives up6 hits and walks 2 batters in 7 innings pitched, his WHIP wouldbe: [2 (walks allowed) + 6 (hits allowed)]/7 (innings pitched)= 1.14.
WHIP typically correlates to ERA in that both will be high or both will be low for a given pitcher. Theoretically, the more Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched, the more earned runs that pitcher stands to give up. However, WHIP does not statistically account for earned runs. The end result of this—though unusual—is that a pitcher can indeed have a high WHIP and a low ERA or vice versa. This is an extremely important concept to understand, as it often times can be a great tool for isolating overvalued or undervalued pitchers.
For example, the Dodgers Kaz Ishii currently has a nice 3.49ERA. Those studying just ERA may feel good about Ishii movingforward. A closer look, however, reveals that Ishii also carriesa dangerously high 1.49 WHIP. Why the discrepancy? Well, Ishiiis currently second in the Major Leagues with 44 walks allowed. That is an alarming number of base on balls—base runners—he isputting out there. Thus far, the walks have not come back tohaunt Ishii in the form of runs. But rest assured; if Ishii continuesto issue free passes it will start to impact his ERA as well. So in this particular instance, Ishii’s strong ERA may in factbe misleading given his comparatively high WHIP.
So as a frame of reference, here is MLB’s Average WHIP, MLB’sMedian WHIP, the NL’s Average WHIP and the AL’s Average WHIP. All as of June 1, 2004.
MLB Average 1.41 WHIP
MLB Median 1.36 WHIP
NL Average 1.37 WHIP
AL Average 1.45 WHIP
So far evaluation purposes, a WHIP below 1.41 would be factoredas better than average. The lower it goes, the better the WHIPbecomes. The reverse obviously holds true as well. The higherthe WHIP, the worse.
When a team is leading and a relief pitcher is called in, the “Saves” metric is used to evaluate his effectiveness. We hear the term “saves” thrown around all the time in baseball. But what is the precise definition of save?
Well, it’s a bit tricky, but a pitcher is credited with a save when he meets the following conditions: (1) He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his club; and (2) He is not the starting pitcher and/or pitcher credited with the win. He must also qualify under one of the following conditions: (a) He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning; or (b) He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat, or on deck; or (c) He pitches effectively for at least three innings.
This metric clearly is related to how many games a team wins and how many runs a team scores. Danny Graves for the Cincinnati Reds has saved a whopping 26 of the 32 games his team has won this season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers Eric Gagne has saved just 14 of the 28 games his team has won. Is Graves better than Gagne? Well, let us note that Gagne has converted a major league record 76 saves dating back to 2002. So of course Graves is not better than Gagne. But Graves has more saves because he has been the beneficiary of more save opportunities (as defined above). Gagne has converted every save opportunity presented to him this season, but his team has not given near the amount of opportunities Cincinnati has offered Graves.
We generally believe that the “Save” metric is overrated. Major League Pitchers should be able to come into the final inning and hold a lead (especially if its three runs) most of the time. In our opinion, the better metric for handicapping purposes is blown saves.
Cleveland Indians’ bettors should know this agonizing stat better than anyone. As of early June, their team has converted a meager 5 of 17 save opportunities this season (29%)! The Tribe might be sitting in the AL Central’s top spot if they had a stopper like Gagne. As alluded to above, the better metric for evaluating closers is blown saves rather than total saves. In percentage terms, this is simply the number of saves that a team fails to convert divided by the number of save opportunities. The Indians, for example, have blown a staggering 71% of their saves opportunities this season (12 saves blown divided by 17 save opportunities).
To put this into perspective, here is MLB’s Average and Medianblown save percentages, as well as the NL’s and AL’s Average blownsave percentages as of June 1, 2004.
MLB Average 33% Blown Saves
MLB Median 33% Blown Saves
NL Average 31% Blown Saves
AL Average 35% Blown Saves
So for evaluation purposes, a Blown Save ratio below 33% would be factored as better than average. The higher it goes, the worse it comes.
We will be back in the next few days with a closer look at hitting acronyms. Just as ERA and/or Saves can be misleading when looked at in isolation, batting average among many other offensive metrics can prove even more so. Until then, good luck with your bets!
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