Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) +3, O/U 44 vs. Florida Gators (11-1), 6 p.m. Eastern Saturday, CBS
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
The Florida Gators, still clinging to longshot hopes of a berth in college football’s national championship game, take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in the SEC championship game Saturday night at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.
Florida, at 11-1, needs not only to beat Arkansas Saturday to have a chance to play Ohio State in the BCS championship game Jan. 8 in Glendale, Az., it needs some help from UCLA and some love from voters in some of the polls. But the Gators must concentrate on what they can do, and not on what they have no control over.
Arkansas had its own outside chance at a slot opposite the Buckeyes, but that went down the tubes with last week’s loss to LSU.
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The Razorbacks, champs of the SEC West, lost their season opener to USC 50-14, then won 10 games in a row before last week’s defeat.
The Gators, champs of the SEC East, have won five games in a row since suffering their only defeat of the season, a 27-17 decision to Auburn, and beat Florida State last week 21-14.
These two teams haven’t met since Florida beat Arkansas 45-30 in October of 2004.
Neither team has been too kind to its financial backers this season. The Hogs are 4-7 against the spread, while the Gators are only 3-8 vs. the numbers.
These two teams have played six common opponents this season. Arkansas lost to LSU 31-26 last week, while Florida beat the Tigers 23-10; the Razorbacks beat Tennessee 31-14, and the Gators beat the Vols 21-20; the Hogs beat South Carolina 26-20, and Florida beat the Gamecocks 17-16; Arkansas defeated Auburn 27-10, while the Tigers handed the Gators their only loss this season by that 27-17 tally; the Razorbacks snuck by Alabama 24-23, while Florida beat the Tide 28-13; and Arkansas knocked off Vanderbilt 21-19, while the Gators beat the Commodores 25-19.
The Razorbacks have played a couple of QBs this season, with Mitch Mustain and Casey Dick combining for a 20/13 TD/INT ratio and a 129.6 pass efficiency rating.
Florida also has played two QBs this season, but mostly it’s been senior Chris Leak taking the snaps. Gators QBs have tallied a 25/12 TD/INT ratio and a 155.2 PE rating.
Arkansas is outrushing opponents this season by a 236-117 yards-per-game average, while Florida is outgrounding foes by a 157-70 YPG margin.
The Gators offense ranks 21st in Division 1 (out of 119 teams) by averaging 398 total yards per game, and the Florida defense ranks 10th by holding opponents to 265 total yards per game.
The Razorbacks’ offense ranks 31st at 384 TYPG, while the Hogs defense ranks 29th at 300 TYAPG.
The Gators rank 40th in average time-of-possession at 30:36, while Arkansas ranks 105th at 28:16.
The O/U is 5-6 in Razorbacks games this season, 3-8 in Florida games.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com rank the Gators 10th at 87.4, Arkansas 17th at 83.7.
The Ultimatecapper Pick: We love Florida minus the three. | 
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