NFL Week 12 – NFL Match Up Analysis – NFL Betting ]]>
November 21 2007
Seattle Seahawks (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) at St. Louis Rams (2-8 SU & ATS)
With just two wins, St. Louis is headed toward its third-straight season without a postseason appearance. Those two wins have come in the past two games, but both were on the road, and now the Rams return to the Edward Jones Dome, where they have lost four straight this season, to host the division-rival Seahawks, who lead the sad-sack NFC West. The Rams will be looking for revenge after getting blown out in Seattle 33-7 earlier this season. The Seahawks have had their own struggles this season, especially on the road, where they’ve lost and failed to cover the spread in three of four tries this season. They have come up short in 17 of 25 as road favorites and in 13 of 17 as road favorites of 3½ points or less. St. Louis, meanwhile, has cashed nine of 10 at home after giving up 10 points or less.
New York Jets (2-8 SU, 2-6-2 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (9-1 SU, 6-3-1 ATS)
Despite having the second-best record in the NFL (along with Green Bay), Dallas has not been kind to bettors when they’re a double-digit favorite (9-18-2 ATS). The New York Jets are 11-21-1 as underdogs, but they have covered the spread in 12 of 18 tilts after winning their previous game by three points or less, which they did last Sunday, pulling off one of the bigger upsets of the season with a 19-16 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 9.5-point underdog. The Cowboys beat the Washington Redskins 28-23 as an 11-point favorite last week. The Jets are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their past five games on the road.
Buffalo Bills (5-5 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS)
Despite being shellacked 56-10 by the Patriots last week, Buffalo has fared well after facing New England, going 14-1 ATS in 15 games after playing their AFC East rivals. The Bills are also 13-2 ATS following a SU division loss to any AFC East foe. Jacksonville is 24-11-1 ATS against non-division opponents. The Jaguars beat San Diego 24-17 as a 3-point favorite last week, Jacksonville’s second-straight win.
Oakland Raiders (2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS)
Houston Texans (5-5 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (6-4 SU, 7-2-1 ATS)
Minnesota Vikings (4-6 SU, 4-4-2 ATS) at New York Giants (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS)
New Orleans Saints (4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (4-6 SU & ATS)
Washington Redskins (5-5 SU, 4-4-2 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4 SU & ATS)
Both these teams have won two straight. Washington is coming off a 28-23 loss to the NFC East rival New York Giants, a game it could have won were it not for a last-minute interception. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, found its offense big-time in a 31-7 blowout over the Atlanta Falcons. Tampa Bay is 3-11 ATS coming off back-to-back SU wins. But the Bucs have covered at a rate of 32-17-2 against non-division opponents at home. Washington is an impressive 3-1 ATS as underdogs this year and 3-1-1 ATS on the road. Tampa Bay has gone under in 17 of 22 as home favorites. With Washington, though, there’s a major “over” trend: The total has gone over in five of Washington’s past five games, over in four of Washington’s past six games on the road, and over in four of Washington’s past six against Tampa Bay.
San Francisco 49ers (2-8 SU, 2-7-1 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (5-5 SU, 7-2-1 ATS)
Baltimore Ravens (4-6 SU, 1-9 ATS) at San Diego Chargers (5-5 SU & ATS)
Baltimore has lost four straight and 0-5 ATS on the road this season. San Diego is 4-1 ATS at home this season. The Ravens are 22-9 ATS coming off a home loss, but 0-7 recently against conference opponents. The total has gone under in five of Baltimore’s past five games against San Diego, and under in four of Baltimore’s past six overall. The total has gone over in four of Baltimore’s past six on the road. Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its past six on the road against San Diego. San Diego is 12-2 SU in its past 14 at home.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) at New England Patriots (10-0 SU, 9-0-1 ATS)
These teams have not clashed since the 2005 Super Bowl, when the Patriots won the NFL championship with a 24-21 win over the Eagles. Philadelphia has covered the spread in 12 of 16 as double-digit road underdogs and five of its past six when facing teams from the AFC East. However, the Eagles are only 10-16-3 on the road against the AFC overall. New England is 11-1 ATS coming off a double-digit division win and 37-13-2 as non-division home favorites. Philadelphia has gone over the total in 14 of 18 as underdogs.
Miami Dolphins (0-10 SU, 3-4-3 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS)
This is not an enviable position for the lowly Dolphins, as Pittsburgh should be steaming after losing to the New York Jets last Sunday. Miami is a very impressive 14-3-1 as non-division road underdogs of five points or more but, alas, the Dolphins are also 1-11 ATS after playing their last game on the road and 0-9 ATS following a road loss. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 10 of 12 at home when playing on Monday Night Football. The total has gone under in five of Miami’s past six games against Pittsburgh, and under in four of Miami’s past six overall. Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its past five at home.