2006 Belmont Stakes Picks

Get ready for a wacky Belmont Stakes, which should be a great betting race!

There are no standouts in the 138th running of the Belmont and none of this year’s runners appear to be as good as the last 20 winners of this race. On the plus side, the field appears to be relatively well matched, which means good betting odds on your selection and an even better shot of hitting a whopper trifecta or superfecta. An excellent exacta payoff is also very possible in this wide open race.

We’ve already made our selection based on a particular trainer, but we’ll go down the list in post position order giving you a complete analysis before selecting our top four.

1. Platinum Couple (30-1) – Sixth beaten 22 ½ lengths in the Preakness, his last good race came on March 22 at Aqueduct in a one-mile optional claiming/allowance race. Has enough seasoning but doesn’t appear to want the distance on form or pedigree. His Beyer Figures are low and his running style says he will be coming from well back. Only positives really are the fact hat he won a stake race at 2 and has capable jockey Espinoza in the saddle. Could slip into the superfecta but that’s about it.

2. Sunriver (4-1) – Will be overbet as the hot, fresh wise guy horse coming into the race off a determined win in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont on May 20. He does have a lot of positives going for him however. Trainer Pletcher is having a good year, jockey Bejarano has been hot and this horse can sit close, which is the running style generally required to win the Belmont. He’s also one of only five horses in the field to have cracked the 100 Beyer barrier. He’s in solid form and would not be a surprise winner, but 4-1 seems awful low. Must use in exotics.

3. Hemingway’s Key (15-1) – Another superfecta player we can’t see winning. He’ll be coming from further back in here than some and his third-place finish in the Preakness gave us nothing to get excited about. We’re also concerned about his seasoning, given the fact that he only raced twice as a 2-year-old. On the plus side, trainer nick Zito has won the Belmont before and this horse does appear to have enough stamina in his pedigree to get the distance.

4. Bob And John (5-1) – Comes into the Belmont off a troubled trip in the Kentucky Derby and does have the right kind of running style to win the Belmont. He’s also won of five horses in here that have cracked the 100 Beyer barrier. He appears to have recovered from his Derby debacle and has three bullet works at Santa Anita coming into the race for proven Triple Crown trainer top Bob Baffert. We also think he has both the seasoning and the stamina to get the distance. The only thing we don’t like about him is the fact that in the Wood Memorial he wore down a horse that was done at the eighth pole, Keyed Entry. He’s never really beaten anyone great, but then, there is no one great in here. Must use in the exotics top and bottom. If you like his odds, he’s also a win play. We’d like to see 7-1 or better to play him in the win spot.

5. High Finance (12-1) – Only one horse in the last 20 years has wired the Belmont field. This could be the second. He looks like the lone speed, although anything can happen in a race like this. And he will be long odds. He might just get out front early and forget to stop. And he may have some hidden class, having run second to Bernardini on March 4 at Gulfstream Park in a one-mile allowance race. He’s short on seasoning, having had only five starts, but he was impressive in his last allowance win at Belmont going a mile. His Dosage is on the edge at 4.0 but his grandsires Deputy Minister and Conquistador Cielo say he’s got a decent shot at getting the distance. We’ll just have to call this guy a longshot with a better chance than the other longshots, and because he has speed he has to be used on all your exotics. What the heck, make a small win-place bet on him to, just in case he gets loose and widens at 20-1 or better.

6 Oh So Awesome (20-1) – This is our pick, mainly because of trainer Jimmy Jerkens. This future Hall of Famer and son of “The Giant Killer” H. Allen Jerkens learned his trade well working for his famous father and this horse has a lot going for him. His last race, his first start in North America was a rallying third place finish over a sloppy track going a mile and a sixteenth at Belmont. He recorded a 91 Beyer Figure in that race and now gets Lasix for the first time. You just know he’ll have the seasoning and stamina, having trained in France for most of his life, and now we’ll have to hope trainer Jerkens can get him to the next level as far as class goes. We’re playing him to win and using him in all spots in the exotics at what should be a nice price.

7 Deputy Glitters (15-1) – Jockey Edgar Prado and trainer Tom Albertrani give this horse a chance. Albertrani was an assistant for Billy Mott during Cigar’s 16-race winning streak and he is also the trainer of Preakness winner Bernardini. He’s coming off a troubled trip in the Derby and did beat fellow short-priced entrant Bluegrass Cat in the Tampa Bay Derby three starts ago. He’s broken the 100 Beyer barrier, his running style is suited to winning the Belmont and he could be the first to take over from High Finance if that one stops. He also appears to have enough seasoning and the stamina to go with it in his pedigree. Must use in exotics.

8 Jazil (10-1) – We kind of think this is a sucker horse in this year’s Belmont. He’ll probably be overbet but we think his late running style is only going to get him a small piece of the exotics. His dead-heat fourth place finish in the Derby with Brother Derek indicates he does have some class but deep closers rarely win this race. He should get the distance, but doesn’t appear to be fast enough to win, having never cracked the 100 Beyer mark. Use in the lower spots in the exotics.

9 Bluegrass Cat (3-1) – Has the right kind of running style to win this race, a good jockey- trainer combo in John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher and looked decent running second in the Kentucky Derby at 30-1. He may be the most seasoned runner in the field and he rarely runs a bad race. He’s also cracked the 100 Beyer mark and may have a class edge on most of these. With Sunriver likely to take the wiseguy money this guy could also be a nice price. If it wasn’t for Jerkens training Oh So Awesome, this would be our pick to win. Use in first and second in the exotics.

10 Double Galore (30-1) – Who is trainer Myung Kwon Cho? And what is this horse doing in this race. He just broke his maiden at Hollywood Park on May 19 with a Beyer Figure of 89. So not only does he have to improve at least 11 points on the Beyer scale, he’s jumping up in class three or more levels. As a presser, he might be the horse that screws up High Finance’s chance of wiring the field. Can’t see him finishing in the top four.

11 Steppenwolfer (9/2) – This horse always tries but seems to lack the acceleration required to win. Sure he’ll rally but like Jazil he just gets too far back to make his late rally effective, especially in the Belmont Stakes, where winners come from within five lengths. His third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby will cause him to be overbet in the win spot. Has enough pedigree and seasoning, but we’ll be using him only underneath in the exotics, not to win.

12 Sacred Light (15-1) – Jockey Victor Espinoza is good enough, but we don’t think the horse is. That being said, his second place finish three back in the Santa Catalina behind Brother Derek would put him in the money with this bunch. His pedigree is lacking in stamina and he’s borderline on seasoning, but his last race showed that he will give his best, despite the fact that he did finish second in a mile and sixteenth allowance race at Churchill. Longshot chance to finish in the exotics.

Our Picks for the 2006 Belmont Stakes

Oh So Awesome
Bluegrass Cat
Sunriver
Bob and John