Washington Redskins Over/Under Win Predictions

Las Vegas has set the line at 7.5, -120

Prediction: UNDER 7.5 (1 Unit)

2004 Record: 6-10 The Redskins 2005 HomeOpponents are CHI, SEA, SF, PHI, OAK, SD, DAL and the NYG andthe Road Games are DAL, DEN, KC, NYG, TB, STL, ARI and PHI.

I am trying to understand why there is reasonfor optimism in D.C. this year. In my analysis, this team hasregressed, gone backwards. This total is inflated due to Joe Gibbs,Santana Moss, David Patten and Clinton Portis. It ain’t enoughby a longshot.

The Skins converted less than 1/3 of their thirddown attempts. That just gives proof to Mike Shanahan’s conceptof Bronco backs being a product of the system. Portis’s drop of1.7 yards per carry from his other two seasons in the league speaksvolumes. Offensive Line Coach Joe Bugel will have to simplifythe offense in order to reduce the training camp errors. The realityis that the Redskins are thin on the offensive line. The biggestmisconception in the NFL currently is the worth of a running backto a team. Why do you think that backs were drafted so early thisyear? Because when guys like McGahee, Alexander, Portis, Drouhnsand Edgerrin James want big bucks, their teams can get a replacementon the cheap. James will get $8.5 M this year under the franchisetag but it will be his last in Indy. As a RB after 30 years old,you have no contract leverage in this league.

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I will get into the defensive issues shortly,but let’s try to understand the offensive reasoning. The signingof Santana Moss gives Washington a better deep threat than RodGardner, who was let go and the current crop of wide receivers,but the issue starts at QB. Newcomers Santana Moss and David Pattenare nice second and third receivers, but cannot carry this passinggame. The best pass catcher on this team may be Robert Royal atTight End. Not a good prospect for 3rd and long.

Mark Brunell? No depth or strength left in hiswing. Patrick Ramsey? Hey, I am a Tulane grad, so I want to seehim succeed but he has no down field vision and throws underneathon 3rd and long because his WR’s can’t stretch the field. Addthe pressure of drafting Jason Campbell from auburn after Gibbsgave the dreaded “Vote of Confidence” to Ramsey… shades of HeathShuler! One of the league’s five worst passing offenses from 2004will find itself sliding even further down the rankings this year.In today’s NFL, the “VOC” means “One Bad Series and You Are Out!”…Gibbs wasn’t hired by quick trigger finger Daniel Snyder on the5 year plan, he isn’t that patient.

Let’s talk defense… Washington’s best covercorner, Fred Smoot, bailed out a Redskins team that has gone downwardsince his arrival there, finishing a total of 12 games under .500in his four seasons and found an opportunity in Minnesota. LinebackerAntonio Pierce followed suit to the NY Giants. Snyder spent foolishlyon bad or declining players and now Washington is 23rd in theNFL in cap space, with only $1.911 Million to spend. Almost afull quarter of the 2005 cap is allocated to players who are noton the roster or who will not see much action.

Levar Arrington’s knee is iffy at best and with6.5 M due to him, he may be a cap casualty before the season evenstarts. Sean Taylor has a court date the day after the seasonopener that may not only distract him, but land him in jail fora long while on gun and assault charges. 1st Round pick CarlosRogers is still unsigned, but the issue is more about his anklethan his contract. Rogers has a first degree sprain, bone bruiseand stress fracture in his right ankle and foot. The injurieswill cause him to miss at least the beginning of training camp.

While the rest of the NFC East spent their offseasonadding to their team through free agency and the draft improvingtheir team’s weaknesses, the Redskins went the other way. Theoffensive line will be a question mark with Jon Jansen returningfrom a knee blowout but in a ground-based offense, forward thrustis all important. Will the Skins best offensive lineman returnto his form? After 30, that is questionable.

With so many questions at O-Line, QB, defense,the improvement of the division and the drama from the offseasoninternally, I can’t see any way that Washington can be penciledin for 8 wins. The home game against the 49ers should be a W butafter that, it is questionable. Road wins will be scarce. RedskinNation should prepare for a year of rebuilding, high salary purgesand another full stadium watching a bad product. No easy markson this schedule and really no way to steal victories. Gibbs maynot last the length of his contract.

UNDER 7.5 WINS for One Unit
Projected: 5-11 (Optimistic)

Thanks for reading! Preseason weekend startsSaturday, hop on board now for the Full Season Discount and theWeek One plays.

Mychal
Advantage Sports
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