2004 NCAA Football Predictions

Vanderbilt Commodores

2003 Record: 2-10
2004 Projected Record 6-5

Overview

Vanderbilt has been in a rut for years but this could be the year they break
out with a 6 win season and a trip to a bowl game for the first time since
1982. As a matter of fact, that was the last year they had a winning record
so we are going out on a limb here. There won’t be a more experienced team
in the SEC with 29 players coming back with at least three games of starting
experience along with more than 50 letter winners. With the exception of a
few backups, the entire two deep returns on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, they should be able to match points with most of their
competition. They return 10 players on the unit with QB Jay Cutler leading
the way. Cutler is not well known but he had a very solid season a year ago
and should improve again this year. His strong arm and running ability make
him a duel threat and one of the more dangerous signal callers in the SEC.
The Commodores scored 21 or more points 6 times last season, only the second
time that has happened in the last 5 years. Offensive tackle Justin
Geisinger was named to the 2004 Outland Trophy Watch List. Injuries have
hurt the defensive side of the ball in past years so remaining healthy is a
must for the entire returning lineup. LB Moses Osemwegie and DE Jovan Haye
lead the way with Haye being named to the Preseason Bronko Nagurski Award
Watch List.

Schedule

They should come out of the first half of the year with at least four wins
in the first seven games. Games against Navy, Mississippi St., Rutgers and
Eastern Kentucky are all must wins (or should be wins) and they must pull
off an upset or two to get bowl eligible. The best options for that are a
home game against South Carolina and road games at Kentucky and Ole Miss.
Their 2-10 record from a season ago is a little misleading. They suffered
some bad luck losing close games to Ole Miss and Georgia Tech while hanging
around in losses to Mississippi State, South Carolina, Florida and Navy.
Those close games need to be won this year and with their experience, they
should be able to pull those out.

Best Chance For An Upset

September 4th – South Carolina

Summary

There will be no undefeated season or an SEC title for this squad, but they
could be a dangerous team if everyone stays healthy. Experience could win
them a couple games that they could not have won a season ago. Because of
their 2-10 record from last year, they should get some value early on in the
season and the points should be a plenty. An outright win over USC in their
opener at home might not be as implausible as once thought.

Cincinnati Bearcats

2003 Record: 5-7
2004 Projected Record 9-2

Overview

This was a veteran team last year, and most of the squad should take that
experience and benefit from it in a big way in 2004. One too many close
losses last season (5 by a touchdown or less including four losses when the
Bearcats held the lead in the fourth quarter) cost head coach Rick Minter
his job. They were outscored by a total of only 15 points last season
(305-290) and one or two more wins would have gotten them in a bowl game and
Minter would most likely still be around. That is not the case however as
Mark Dantonio comes in and inherits an excellent team, which is usually not
the case for a new coach coming in. The offense should explode with QB Gino
Guidugli operating behind a strong line and experienced wideouts. He is
coming off a very disappointing season and that alone should fire him up for
his senior year. Now is the time to prove to everyone that he can play at
the next level. A healthy Richard Hall at RB will help balance out an
offense that averaged 24.9 ppg last season, a number that should be
surpassed this season. The defense needs improvement, especially in the
secondary but they should be very solid up front. It’s possible that if the
holes are filled, this could be one of the best stop units in the
conference, as they possess one of, if not the best, defensive end in Trent
Cole. Allowing 40 or more points three times cannot happen again this
season.

Schedule

Starting off the season at Ohio St. doesn’t help much but Dantonio was hired
away from the Buckeyes so he should be able to put together a very good game
plan for the opener if nothing else. A 7-1 start is not out of the question
but neither is a 5-3 start. Home games against Memphis and TCU will be very
tough but they are the games they need to win to elevate themselves from
good to great. Games at Southern Miss and Louisville in 2 of their final 3
games will likely determine the CUSA Champion. This is not an easy schedule
by any means but it is one that they should take care of if their talent
plays like it is capable of.

Best Chance For An Upset

November 6th – at Southern Miss

Summary

The Bearcats have all the makings of a title contender and as long as they
don’t underachieve like they did a season ago, they should be right in the
hunt. Guidugli will have to cut down on his mistakes while the defense will
need to create opportunities for the offense. All the returning experience
should pay off big time and those close losses from last year will turn into
close wins. Because of the improvements on both sides of the ball, those
close wins might turn into blowouts, giving us some easy cover wins.

Texas A&M Aggies

2003 Record: 4-8
2004 Projected Record 7-4

Overview

Dennis Franchione’s first season in College Station was a rocky one to say
the least. A 4-8 record is not acceptable in College Station and it is
imperative for him to turn things around right now. He has the experienced
weapons to get it done now and those weapons must play up to their ability
with QB Reggie McNeal at the top of the list. He passed for only a 51%
completion percentage last season but he was banged up more often than not.
A healthy McNeal can take this offense as far as he wants, especially with
his great receiving corps and with Courtney Lewis in the backfield. The
coaching staff is starting to reap the benefits of last year’s stellar
recruiting class. After several of the incoming freshmen were held out of
action during last year’s 4-8 season, Franchione was second-guessed at
times. However, with a year in the system, many of those class of 2003
recruits are now holding down, or vying for, #1 spots on the depth chart.
Amazingly, last season it was the defense that looked bad most of the time,
something that the Aggie faithful are not used to seeing. The Texas A&M run
defense turned surprisingly soft allowing 225 ypg and 31 touchdowns.
However, defensive line is expected to be the most improved position on this
year’s squad. During last year’s transition from the 3-4 to a 4-3, the
Aggies had several players trying to play the DE spot, who were more fit at
DT. Don’t expect to see opponents scoring 38.8 ppg like they did a season
ago.

Schedule

This is still a young team despite the return of 14 starters that will need
a few games to get everything together. Starting things off at Utah isn't
the place to do that but they return home for 3 straight after that. Two of
those games are against Clemson and Kansas St., both top 20 teams, so a win
there will be a huge boost for the remainder of the season while two wins
can go even further. The good thing is that 2 of their 4 Big 12 road games
are winnable – at Iowa St. and at Baylor. Actually they are must wins since
the Big 12 will be as tough as ever. They should be 6-2 heading into their
final 3 games.

Best Chance For An Upset

October 2nd – Kansas St

Summary

The defense can only go up from where they were last season, how far up they
go depends on how much the returnees learned from their experiences. They
are getting in some talented JUCO transfers as well that should give the
unit a boost. The wild card to their success or lack thereof is McNeal. If
he remains as inconsistent as he has been thus far, he will not be starting
for long. He has the talent to get the job done and we think he does it.
If not, highly touted Stephen McGee will get his chance early.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

2003 Record: 5-7
2004 Projected Record 7-4

Overview

This could be Jim Grobe’s best Demon Deacon team yet with as much returning
talent as anyone in the ACC. They return 14 players on both sides with the
defense getting 8 back. They hope to use their experience from last season
to improve their total defense that ranked 107th in the country in 2003. A
change to the 4-3 will help things before they even get started since there
is more talent and depth to allow for it. They allowed 40 or more points in
4 of their last 5 games last year so the change will do them good.
Offensively, it will come down to the play of the young offensive line.
Normally it’s hard to back teams without experienced lines but all 3 of the
new starters do have playing time under their belts and all are at least
juniors. 302-pound junior Wesley Bryant is a transfer from Florida and his
presence will be most important to a consistent line. They have a very big
job. RB Chris Barclay is a back not many people have heard of but after
this year, they will certainly know his name. He was slowed by an early
ankle injury last season and was limited to 1,192 yards but if healthy, look
for a huge season. The key on offense will be consistency with QB Cory
Randolph needing to become a bit more of a passing threat.

Schedule

The Deacons have one of the most advantageous schedules in all of the
country this upcoming season. After starting the season with two road
games, which they should split, they return home to play 6 of their next 7

games. Not all 6 games are gimmies by any stretch but facing Florida St.
and Virginia Tech at home rather than on the road is a big advantage. They
finish the season at Miami and at Maryland but by then, we will already know
if they are contenders or just pretenders.

Best Chance For An Upset

October 9th – Virginia Tech

Summary

With the new ACC starting this season (sans Boston College), the conference
is that much more difficult and for someone like Wake Forest to win the
title in next to impossible. But don’t expect them to just roll over for
everyone either. Grobe has done a superb job in getting top players to come
to Winston-Salem and now is the time to showcase that talent. While their
record may not improve all that much from last year, their competitiveness
will. They lost their last 5 games by 19.2 ppg – that won’t happen this
year. Another team that should get good value early.

Penn State Nittany Lions

2003 Record: 3-9
2004 Projected Record 8-4

Overview

Now is the time for this program to get back to their traditional winning
ways or it could signal the end of a great college football powerhouse.
After back-to-back losing seasons in 2000 and 2001, the Nittany Lions looked
to be back with a solid 9-3 2002. However, after going 3-9 last year, there
are more worries. The talent is here for them to have a very successful
season but the most important part of their season will come down to
discipline. They were to get back most of their defense from last year but
suspensions after the spring knocked their returnees down to just 4 on that
side of the ball. New faces will toughen them up. The offense is the side
that needs the most improvement and the first step has already been taken
with a new offensive coordinator in Galen Hall. The offense finished 103rd
in total offense last year and one would think with the loss of their
receivers and backs, it might even get worse. Not really, as the incumbents
possess more ability and talent even though they may be young. QB Zack
Mills must stay healthy for the offense to click and pull together. The
Paterno formula has always been to develop players who turn into stars by
their junior and senior seasons, and that has to be the case this year on
both sides.

Schedule

Not the easiest schedule to turn a team around with but not the most
difficult either. They will be at least 2-1 heading to Wisconsin and
Minnesota to start their Big 10 slate. Those two road games could be huge,
as a split should propel them to a 6-4 record before their season ending
showdown against Michigan St. They miss Michigan this season and 7-4 gets
them to an ever-important bowl game. If they miss out on another bowl,
things might be changing in Happy Valley.

Best Chance For An Upset

September 25th – at Wisconsin

Summary

This could be the season that saves Paterno’s coaching career. A winning
season and a bowl game will ease some of the scrutiny while another losing
season could spell the end of an era. It’s up to the coaching staff to get
the players to play with pride while it’s up to the players to leave it all
on the field. Apparently the coaches are doing their part since word from
campus is that the players went through some of the toughest practices they
have ever experienced during spring practices. Let’s see if they pay off
with a big start to the season.

Our next installment will focus on teams heading in the opposite direction
in 2004.

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