130th Kentucky Derby

It’s here, the 130th Kentucky Derby scheduled for Saturday May 1st at Churchill Downs in Louisville,Kentucky. This years edition is one of the most wide open, and figures to be one the most attractive to wager on in recent years. There is a full field of 20 ready to go to the post with no field entry meaning that each horse is its own separate wagering interest. One of the facts indicating how wide open the Derby looks to be is that the morning line favorite is 4/1, previous years dictated that the morning line favorite was usually in the 5/2 to 3/1 range. This year’s early favorite is The Cliff’s Edge trained by multiple Derby winner, Nick Zito and ridden by Kentucky regular Shane Sellers. The three year old will start from the middle of the pack at post 11, an advantageous slot giving the rider a good starting block to try and land where he would like going into the first turn which figures to be a wild ride with all 20 scrimmaging for position.

Handicappers and fans alike have different methods for attempting to figure the layout of the Kentucky Derby, here is a quick prediction of the way I see the race shaping up. In a 20 horse field the first turn is of paramount importance, as a rider you can not afford to be 5 wide or grabbing your horse hard coming into the first turn, you must try to use the your horses tactical speed to secure a solid early position . It is my opinion that is race will not be won by a horse that is way back early, there will simply be to much congestion and traffic to negotiate with coming down the backstretch and into the far turn, so I like LionHeart, a 3 year old trained by Patrick Biancone and ridden by Mike Smith. Here is a horse that was on the lead just about all the way in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and was eventually collared by the morning line favorite The Cliff’s Edge. If Smith is able to not be on the lead, but close to it he will have the upper hand turning for home and he might just be able to hold off later comers such as Castledale and Friend’s Lake at the wire.

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